Could Aer Lingus Add Nashville or Raleigh-Durham?

Aer Lingus has significantly grown its United States network over the past decade, adding major cities such as Seattle and Miami, but also venturing into smaller markets like Cleveland and Hartford. It should be no surprise that more cities are targeting Aer Lingus’ service to Dublin, and it seems two airports in the Southeast are matched against each other.

Nashville International Airport (BNA) currently has a single daily transatlantic flight with British Airways to London Heathrow (LHR). The airline operates this service with a 214-seat Boeing 787-8, but is scheduled to switch to the larger 272-seat Boeing 777-200ER in Summer 2024. BNA has ambitions to expand its international portfolio, and Aer Lingus is one primary target.

According to the Metropolitan Nashville Airport Authority’s (MNAA) recent board meeting minutes, which summarizes its president’s presentation, BNA is aiming to secure a nonstop flight to Dublin, Ireland (DUB) through Aer Lingus. However, most notably in the minutes, BNA reveals it seems to be competing against Raleigh-Durham Airport (RDU).

“We are trying to sell Ireland right now, and it appears to be between Raleigh Durham or [Nashville]. We have a better business case than Raleigh Durham, although we are 300 miles further distance. Raleigh Durham can get a nonstop flight to Dublin out of Charlotte, we would have to drive to Atlanta. There are a lot of other business reasons why Aer Lingus should come to Nashville vs. Raleigh.”

The first line, “it appears to be between RDU or [Nashville]”, has some ambiguity to it, such as whether this implies BNA or RDU could be the top contenders or a similar level of priority on Aer Lingus’ expansion list. I asked the MNAA for a statement of clarification, and they responded with the following:

“Given our city's rapid growth and its status as a sought-after destination, we consider Nashville a compelling option for Aer Lingus in its potential expansion into the Southeast. We look forward to engaging in further discussions with Aer Lingus regarding our strong business case. Nevertheless, Aer Lingus has the ability to serve numerous locations not only in North America but also across much of the world. As we continue expanding air service and our world-class airport, it would be a privilege if Aer Lingus decides to broaden its services to Nashville International Airport® (BNA®).”

Of course, none of this guarantees Aer Lingus will begin service to BNA or RDU. Airlines and airports are constantly in varying levels of discussions for new air service. Twin Falls, Idaho (TWF) and Lancaster, Pennsylvania (LNS) have spoken to Avelo Airlines while Lynchburg, Virginia (LYH) has met with JetBlue and Sun Country. None of these have materialized yet, and there’s no guarantee the new services could begin. However, it’s notable how publicly transparent Nashville is with its international prospects compared to other airports.

If Aer Lingus were to add Nashville or Raleigh-Durham, the new service should not be expected until Summer 2025 at the earliest with an announcement in late 2024. Aer Lingus’ fleet is already scheduled to be utilized to the fullest for Summer 2024. The new Airbus A321XLR is expected to arrive towards the end of 2024, and Aer Lingus previously announced plans to initially deploy the aircraft to Minneapolis (MSP). By Summer 2025, the airline should have several frames in its fleet, allowing it to continue expanding.

Nashville or Raleigh-Durham could be strong candidates for Aer Lingus’ new A321XLRs. According to a presentation from Aer Lingus’ parent company, the International Airlines Group (IAG), their A321XLR’s range from Dublin cuts off near Nashville.

According to the MNAA minutes, approximately 567 people are traveling from Nashville to Europe each day. BNA Airport is hoping to capture more of those connecting passengers by providing additional local options to Europe. This could be a good opportunity for Aer Lingus to complement its partner British Airways’ London service.

As for Raleigh-Durham, the airport’s transatlantic capacity has grown significantly within the past few years, securing new service with Icelandair to Reykjavík (KEF) and Lufthansa to Frankfurt (FRA). Air France replaced its joint venture partner Delta Air Lines’ Paris (CDG) route, which introduced more seats. RDU’s weekly transatlantic seat capacity in Summer 2024 is scheduled to be up by over 80% versus 2019 levels, which may increase further when Air France upgauges to the A350-900 as previously announced. Dublin should be one of RDU’s top unserved transatlantic markets.

Again, no guarantees any of these new flights commence, but it’s certainly intriguing to see Nashville’s transparency when it comes to their international targets.