Norse Atlantic Airways’ Load Factors Convey Its Capacity Cuts

Norse Atlantic Airways, a startup airline which operated its first flight in June 2022, continues to pursue its long-haul, low-cost model of operations. Several months ago, I first reported Norse would abruptly suspend all flights to Los Angeles and reduce other transatlantic flights. These reductions to Norse’s winter network—including capacity changes in subsequent seasons—can likely be explained using load factors for the affected routes.

I’ve compiled estimated passenger load factors for Norse Atlantic’s IATA Summer 2022 season on its new routes to Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Los Angeles (LAX), and Orlando (MCO). These load factors do not indicate levels of yield or profitability, but do offer a foundation to understand the airline’s decision to modify certain routes.

Oslo (OSL) to Orlando (MCO)

This section outlines estimated monthly inbound and outbound passenger load factors for Norse Atlantic’s Oslo (OSL) to Orlando (MCO) route, which launched on July 5, 2022 and suspended after the middle of October 2022:

Orlando (MCO) July 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 87.0%
- Departing Load Factor: 71.5%

Orlando (MCO) August 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 61.7%
- Departing Load Factor: 59.2%

Orlando (MCO) September 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 39.4%
- Departing Load Factor: 37.9%

Orlando (MCO) October 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 60.9%
- Departing Load Factor: 45.2%

Average Orlando Summer 2022 (July 5 to mid-October) Load Factor: 58.8%

Note: These estimated load factor percentages are based on my calculations using Orlando International Airport’s published passenger numbers and the number of monthly flights using a 338-seat Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner. These percentages may not be 100% accurate, but should be close to the actual percentage.

Y-Axis represents seat count numbers

Norse Atlantic’s load factors for its Oslo to Orlando route started off strong in July with an average of 79.3%. However, this soon dived towards 38.7% in September but recovered to 53.1% in October.

Norse canceled two round-trip Oslo to Orlando flights in September due to Hurricane Ian. At the end of September, Norse also made the decision to suspend the OSL-MCO route two weeks earlier instead of late October.

This route did not return for Norse’s Winter 2022/23 schedule and is currently set to remain suspended through the end of October 2023. These poor load factors towards the end of the season may have prompted the airline to suspend Oslo to Orlando flights earlier as transatlantic demand generally diminishes during the winter. The load factors may have also discouraged the airline from resuming flights between Oslo and Orlando in Summer 2023. Additionally, numerous compounding factors have likely degraded profitability on this route, such as high fuel prices, inadequate demand, and a weakened Euro compared to the U.S. dollar, which is critical for an inbound leisure market such as Orlando.

While Norse Atlantic has removed this Oslo to Orlando route, the airline is set to announce a new route from London Gatwick (LGW) to Orlando for Summer 2023.

Oslo (OSL) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL)

This section outlines monthly inbound and outbound load factors for Norse Atlantic’s Oslo (OSL) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL) route, which launched on June 18 and continues to operate today. The statistics will only cover through October 2022:

Fort Lauderdale (FLL) June 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 64%
- Departing Load Factor: 79%

Fort Lauderdale (FLL) July 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 85%
- Departing Load Factor: 74%

Fort Lauderdale (FLL) August 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 59%
- Departing Load Factor: 56%

Fort Lauderdale (FLL) September 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 37%
- Departing Load Factor: 34%

Fort Lauderdale (FLL) October 2022
- Arriving Load Factor: 47%
- Departing Load Factor: 44%

Average Fort Lauderdale Summer 2022 (June 18 to end of October) Load Factor: 57.1%

Note: Load factors for OSL-FLL are provided directly from FLL Airport’s statistic reports.

Y-Axis represents seat count numbers

Similarly to Orlando, Norse’s Oslo to Fort Lauderdale load factors started off strong but weakened after the peak summer period.

Norse made the decision to reduce capacity on its Oslo to Fort Lauderdale route for the winter season by decreasing from three weekly to two weekly frequencies. However, despite this reduction in capacity, November isn’t slated to be a good month for this route. While FLL Airport has not published the specific load factor, it has released Norse’s passenger numbers for November 2022. With these numbers, the inbound OSL-FLL recorded an estimated load factor of 32.6% and the outbound FLL-OSL with 32.2%.

In Summer 2023, Norse currently plans to maintain the Oslo to Fort Lauderdale route with two weekly frequencies rather than restoring the third frequency. However, the airline plans to launch a new route to Fort Lauderdale from London Gatwick.

Berlin (BER) & Oslo (OSL) to Los Angeles (LAX)

Los Angeles International Airport has not posted passenger counts for each month, but has published them for 2022 overall. Norse Atlantic Airways launched flights from Oslo to Los Angeles on August 9 which was shortly followed by a Berlin to Los Angeles route.

At the end of September, Norse made the decision to completely suspend all flights to Los Angeles effective October 16. The average arriving load factor for BER/OSL to LAX was 56.9%, the average departing load factor for LAX to BER/OSL was 56.2%, and the average overall load factor for Norse’s Los Angeles flights (between August 9 and October 16) was 56.6%.

Norse intends to resume its Oslo to Los Angeles route in March 2023 with two weekly flights compared to three weekly flights in 2022. Norse currently does not plan to restore flights between Berlin and Los Angeles for the Summer 2023 season. The higher costs associated with the longer stage length, paired with lower yielding traffic and demand, may have deterred Norse from maintaining the original levels of Los Angeles capacity for future schedules. However, Norse plans to commence a new route from London Gatwick to Los Angeles in 2023.

Y-Axis represents seat count numbers

New York JFK & Norse’s Future Plans

New York’s JFK Airport has not posted individual airline traffic statistics. However, with the available data from the three other U.S. airports and Norse Atlantic’s systemwide load factors, the airline’s combined average load factors for the Berlin, London, and Oslo to New York JFK routes should have outperformed other U.S. routes during Summer 2022.

Out of all Summer 2022 U.S. destinations, JFK received the least capacity cuts from Norse’s schedule change at the end of September. The only reduction was decreasing the Oslo to JFK route from 7x weekly to 3x weekly for the winter season. London to JFK continued at 7x weekly while Berlin to JFK remained at its planned reduction of 3x weekly.

According to the airline, the London and Berlin to New York JFK routes “remained strong” during the start of the Winter 2022/23 season while load factors are “significantly lower from Oslo.” This statement is also supported by the 32% load factors for Norse’s Oslo to Fort Lauderdale route in November 2022.

Norse intends to ramp up JFK capacity with new routes to Paris (CDG) and Dublin (DUB) starting in Summer 2023.

While Norse’s load factors have diminished in recent months, the airline remains optimistic and targets profitability in 2023. The ability to remain nimble and cut capacity when needed plays a crucial part in mitigating losses. Although scheduled passenger service has reduced for this winter, Norse is aiming to unlock additional revenue streams. For example, Norse Atlantic has recently begun to operate charter flights, including ones to Phuket (HKT) and Bridgetown (BGI), on behalf of another airline. Cargo revenue per flight is incrementally rising as well.

As Norse gains recognition over time, opens wider booking windows, and accrues other booking channels, load factors should improve in stability. Norse Atlantic Airways is set to launch five new transatlantic routes from London Gatwick—made possible with its new U.K. Air Operator Certificate—and add Boston, Dublin, and Washington D.C to its network.